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In brief
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There are many issues that affect both Greenway residents and the greater community. On this page you can hear what the leaders are saying.
TOP STORIES:
Louise's $1million dollar letterbox campaign begins
Howard dissolves parliament in lead up to election
The action hots up in Greenway
Greenway candidates square off
Mortgage Belted
Howard says Workchoices not to blame
Rudd pledges $4.7 billion broadband overhaul
Rudd leads, Greens strong
Unemployment - Costello takes credit
Greener Fuel - mandatory ethanol
Bookies install new favourite
Sudanese welcome and prospering in Blacktown
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October 2007 |
LOUISE'S $1MILLION LETTERBOX CAMPAIGN BEGINS
Just 4 postal days into the election campaign and I have already received two letters in the mailbox from our sitting member. The first note was offering postal vote advice and the second commenced the onslaught of what massive fundraising efforts can buy. With a million dollars to spend, sources close to the Liberal campaign say that there will be no stopping the bombarding of Greenway residents' letterboxes over the next 6 weeks. With 55,000 homes in the electorate and 50 cents a stamp it costs $27,500 per letter sent plus printing. So, with a colour brochure costing about a buck, each letter costs around $80,000 to send. At two letters a week, Louise will spend $960,000 on junk mail in this campaign.
This prompts the obvious question, how would you better spend $1 million in our electorate?
Email your suggestion here
Louise, well known to fete goers all over the southern electorate, promises in her brochure, families "practical support".
What's that? Practical support? Maybe Labor's Kevin Rudd is right. John Howard does not have a plan for the future. A practical support plan for families would include such specific plans as mortgage assistance protecting families from losing their homes in the worst housing crisis ever seen in Western Sydney.
With people hanging on by their fingertips "having never having had it better" has Louise offering families "practical support".
Well Ms. Markus, you might have to return to counselling when you lose your seat to Michael Vassili. You will be flat out keeping up with the streams of families losing their homes. Bankruptcies, divorce, suicides. It's that bad. Please don't insult us by promising us "practical support" when you really mean nothing. Who writes that rubbish?
HOWARD DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT IN LEAD UP TO ELECTION
Source, SMH, October 14th, 2007
YOUNG voters, fearful about jobs, are poised to deliver a savage blow to John Howard's fifth-term election prospects, an exclusive Sun-Herald/Taverner poll has found.
The Prime Minister will visit Yarralumla today to advise Governor-General Michael Jeffery of his wish to dissolve Parliament and call a federal election for either November 24 or December 1. He will do so as the devastating poll reveals his long-time critical support among older voters has also eroded dramatically.
The poll, conducted in NSW and Victoria, revealed Mr Howard entering the election campaign a whopping 18 per cent behind Labor on a two-party preferred basis - 59 per cent to 41 per cent. Across nearly all demographics and among men and women Labor has leapt ahead, pointing to a landslide victory for the Opposition.
If mirrored on polling day, it would mean a loss to the Government of more than 20 seats. Hatred of Mr Howard's workplace laws emerged as the critical factor in the dramatic shift in support away from the Government. First-time voters and the under 29s cited fears about jobs and employment security as the reason they would not vote for the Government.
Almost three-quarters of voters under 29 said they would vote Labor, compared with 60 per cent in 2004. Only 27 per cent would vote for the Coalition. As dramatic was the defection of cashed-up over 55s, on whom the Government has always relied to form its bedrock support base.
In 2004, 59 per cent of over 55s voted for the Coalition compared with 41 per cent for Labor. The gap has been narrowed dramatically to 51 per cent support for the Coalition, compared with 49 per cent for Labor. Dismal news also emerged from family voters, those aged between 30 and 54, whom Mr Howard has wooed assiduously for a decade. In 2004 marginally more (51 per cent) chose Labor. But fears about job conditions, disillusionment with the Coalition and the "it's time" factor have swung the group solidly behind Labor by 60 per cent to 40 per cent.
The majority support that Mr Howard drew from female voters has shifted profoundly Labor's way (56 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition). Men are also shunning the Coalition, with an emphatic 62 per cent across all ages saying they would vote Labor. Respondents in every age group cited anger and concern about the industrial relations changes as a primary vote-changer. Two-thirds said the laws would have a strong impact on their voting intentions.
"This is a highly emotional issue that has had a hugely negative impact on the Coalition's reputation," Philip Mitchell-Taverner, managing director of Taverner Research, said. "The new laws are seen as ill-considered, irrelevant, counterproductive and anti-worker . . . These findings are calamitous for the Liberals."
Another mantra was the "it's time" factor, with many respondents saying Mr Howard has been in power too long. A slight majority - 51 per cent - said Mr Howard had been right to stay on as prime minister. The downside for the incumbent was that Mr Rudd was seen in both states as the preferred prime minister (52 per cent to 42 per cent, 6 per cent undecided).
Health was rated as the second most important area of concern with climate change and the environment lagging behind trustworthiness and economic management. If either side advocated a timetable for a republic it would curry favour with most voters (53 per cent).
The poll is further good news for Mr Rudd, who yesterday pledged $50million to a cancer centre at Sydney's Royal Prince Alfred Hospital if Labor wins. He said the centre would be a world-class facility.
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September 2007 |
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The Action hots up in Greenway
September 17th, 2007
When Michael Vassili took on the job of Greenway's Labor candidate he was considered a rank outsider. On PortlandBet.com he was quoted with a $19.00 price at taking out the seat in the upcoming election. Fast forward a few months and the Labor candidate attracts only a $2.40 price. This suggests that either a heavy plunge has been made on Vassili to win the seat back for the ALP, alhough this is unlikely due to the early nature of such a bet, so it seems that the sentiment has changed in the region.
Greenway is made up of a vastly different fabric across it's huge geographical area. It consists of a mortgage belt in the south, an agricultural culture further north and a vast 'wilderness' towards the top end. It's simply enormous and each area has its own distinct needs and requirements which demand attention and dedication.
In the south, with suburbs like Quakers Hill, Stanhope Gardens and Glenwood, there are literally thousands of home buyers buckling under enormous pressure due the nine consecutive interest rate rises over the past 5 years combined with the fact housing prices are falling rather than rising. The housing crisis is massive here, more so than in any other electorate in the country. Mortgagee sales are rising.
The added affect of WorkChoices eroding conditions, pay rates and job security are only adding to the problem. This is causing some victims to be virtually paralysed. Interest rate rises do not curb the spendng of these people as they just add pain to the monthly mortgage commitment. Lose your job and your are gone.
And it doesn't take much for that to happen.
In the middle belt of the electorate there is the need for strong economic policy that combines good environmental planning at the same time. Further, there are threats by the Liberal government that Nuclear energy may be used if they are re-elected. Surveys and specualtion suggest that Wiseman's Ferry in the East of the Electorate is the most likely place for a Nuclear Reactor to be built. Louise Markus has not ruled this out.
Michael Vassili has brought this up in public as a major concern for the entire electorate and has asked Ms Markus to rule it out. She hasn't.
Perhaps the people of Greenway have detected a sense of balance is now what is required and change is in the air.
A debate is planned and will prove to be a most intersting affair. Likewise it will be interesting to see if Kevin Rudd's comments hold true about a Liberal governement devoid of ideas. Should Ms Markus simply use the debate as a forum to promote past 'accomplishments' as a way to prove her parties compeence remains to be seen. Forget the past records, time's are changing before our eyes and our government fails to act each time. It REACTS. We need foresight for our changing times, not panic or decisions made under sufferenace. And finally, all decisions cannot be reduced to ones which have a positive effect on the economy. That is only part of the problem and for all the huffing and puffing the Liberals go on with, the divide has never been wider.
Watch this space!
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July 2007 |
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Greenway candidates square off
The Australian, 30/07/07
SEVERAL weeks after he was selected as Labor's candidate in the western Sydney federal seat of Greenway, Michael Vassili bumped into his Liberal opponent at a local flag-raising ceremony.
Mr Vassili said Louise Markus looked surprised when he cordially introduced himself. "She told me she was going to run a fair campaign this time," he recalled. "I said, 'Well, you've got a good starting point -- we're both Christians'."
After 20 years in safe Labor hands, the seat of Greenway was won by Ms Markus for the Liberal Party at the 2004 election with a slender 0.58 per cent margin after the counting of voter preferences. Her main opponent was Ed Husic, a candidate who replaced former unionist Frank Mossfield. He was promoted strongly by the ALP and was a Muslim. The battle lines were drawn in a very public way with Ms Markus, a former social worker and TAFE teacher, openly promoting her Christian faith as an active member of the nearby Hillsong Church.
Mr Vassili, a 43-year-old lawyer who works as a prosecutor for Sydney City Council, blames the poor result for Labor partly on a local reaction against former Opposition leader Mark Latham. But he gives much weight to what he calls a "religious crusade" as local voters reacted against Mr Husic's Muslim faith -- and flocked to Ms Markus -- because of Australia's involvement in the war in Iraq.
Mr Vassili claims he has largely defused local sentiment, and proclaims his faith as a practising Catholic. "I'm a Christian candidate," he says. But another factor is at work against Labor this time -- a redistribution by the Australian Electoral Commission based on local demographics that has radically redrawn the boundaries of Greenway.
While Greenway was previously centred on Blacktown, in Sydney's west, the seat's boundaries now swing north and east to include large areas of the Hawkesbury River. At the same time, working-class suburbs near Blacktown such as Lalor Park and parts of Seven Hills and Woodcroft have moved to an adjoining electorate.
Notionally, according to the redistribution, Ms Markus is now sitting on a comfortable 11 per cent margin for the Liberal Party that includes more affluent and semi-rural areas such as Wisemans Ferry and St Albans. Ms Markus told The Australian she was taking nothing for granted as she met new members of her electorate and fought to keep those remaining from the previous boundary.
"My focus is on the local community," she said. The Liberal candidate also played down the religious backing she could receive this time as part of her avowed support for Hillsong. "That's my church family and there are many churchgoers in the electorate, but I am here to work for the community," Ms Markus said. "I spent 25 years as a social worker and my first priority is to respond to the needs of the electorate. We enjoy freedom of association."
Ms Markus, 48, said the key issues for her were to promote the interest of locals working at the Richmond RAAF base, increase after-hours general practitioner services and improve environmental care of the Hawkesbury-Nepean rivers region. She had also made a personal appeal to federal Education Minister Julie Bishop not to close a University of Western Sydney campus in her electorate.
Mr Vassili said the 11 per cent notional margin made the campaign a tough one for him to win, but he doubted the official estimate. "I don't believe that's the true figure," he said. "I know I'm looking at this through rose-coloured glasses -- I've got candidate-itis -- but eight out of 10 people I'm talking to are saying they support the Labor Party." According to Mr Vassili, a significant group of Filipino, Indian, Sri Lankan and Italian locals from the suburban belt of the electorate at Quakers Hill, Glenwood and Acacia have switched back to Labor.
He believes these voters, facing the burden of increased interest rates, are no longer willing to stick with the Coalition promises to keep rates down. As a Catholic with a Greek migrant father and Irish-Australian mother, he also believes he can neutralise Ms Markus's support from religious locals.
Greenway hopeful Michael Vassili
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April 2007 |
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Mortgage belted
Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank not to raise interest rates is some relief to home buyers. However, this leaves interest rates just one 0.25% increase less than in 1996 when John Howard first took office.
“Despite all the huffing and puffing about being better economic managers, The Howard government has all but given back its interest rate savings,” said Jason Olbourne of the community website mygreenway.com.au, a site originally set up for the residents of the Federal Electorate of Greenway in North Western Sydney but now gaining a wider audience.
“It’s an area of Sydney where many residents are already buckling under the highest interest rates in 6 years coupled with falling property values, many families now have negative equity meaning they cannot even sell their houses”.
Significantly, the greatest drop in the price of money occurred after the tragic events of September 11 sparking one of the greatest housing booms in Australia’s history.
“People I talk to everyday through the website or at the shops tell me how they are barely hanging on by their fingertips” said Olbourne
Ray White Kellyville was reported as saying their mortgagee sales have gone from 6 to 25 a year.
Olbourne suggests that either the government or opposition would be well served developing policy that helps out those battlers belted by these rate rises. “Rather than increasing incentives for first home buyers to enter and attempt to stimulate the housing market, policy makers could issue tax relief in the form of true income splitting, or allow tax deductible interest on mortgage repayments or even partial access to superannuation funds before defaults occur. These practices would help families reduce debt and even establish better household management of finances crucial to surviving the shifting economy” he said.
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March 2007 |
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Workchoices not to blame says Howard
Herald Sun 26/03/07
JOHN Howard says he won't wind back WorkChoices laws despite a message from NSW voters the issue was pivotal in returning an unpopular Labor Government.
The Prime Minister claimed the NSW election result, which saw Labor returned with a slightly reduced majority, was decided predominantly by state issues.
"What I find as I go around the community, people keep saying to me, I keep hearing all these criticisms (of the workplace laws) but I am not coming across people who are affected," Mr Howard said yesterday.
But NSW Premier Morris Iemma said Mr Howard would ignore the WorkChoices message at his peril ahead of this year's federal election. The Labor Government was expected to hold about 53 of the 93 Lower House seats, down from the 55 it won at the 2003 election.
The Coalition is expected to hold 33 or 34 seats -- a gain of three or four; there will be six or seven independents. Star Liberal candidate Pru Goward was yesterday ahead of independent Paul Stephenson in the count for the new southern seat of Goulburn.
Mr Howard's view was backed by key ministers yesterday, including Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey who made the extraordinary claim Labor would have won by a larger margin had it not introduced its anti-WorkChoices ads late in the campaign.
And Defence Minister Brendan Nelson said IR was not a big issue. "Ten days out, according to all the published opinion polls, was Labor's strongest lead," Mr Hockey told the Ten Network. "I think people were fed up with that and wanted them to focus on state issues and there was a late swing against the Labor Party and the overall result was a swing of about 4 per cent against the Labor Party."
But Labor federal workplace relations spokeswoman Julia Gillard said Mr Hockey had his head in the sand. "It is quite clear from published opinion polls that people across NSW were worried about John Howard's laws," she said. "They were the single biggest issue on their minds and they voted against these laws at this election."
Ms Gillard's comments came as she released an analysis of Australian workplace agreements that showed all new AWAs cut at least one award condition, 50 per cent cut overtime loadings, 63 per cent cut penalty rates, and 46 per cent cut public holiday payments. Victorian Family First senator Steve Fielding said if the Government wanted to get rid of its "arrogant" tag, it had to tone down some of its workplace changes. Senator Fielding said the Government had to realise it had failed the battlers who had put their faith in Mr Howard at the last election.
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March 2007 |
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Rudd's broadband bonanza
smh.com.au, 21/03/07
Labor would build a $4.7 billion broadband network up to 40 times faster than current speeds in a joint venture with business, Opposition leader Kevin Rudd announced this morning.
Mr Rudd criticised Australia's existing broadband system, saying it was lagging against other developed countries and would damage education and business competitiveness in the future.
Some $2 billion of the investment needed would be drawn from an existing communications fund, while the remainder would be taken from the 17 per cent share of Telstra placed in the Future Fund.
The boost to Australia's communications infrastructure would help drive productivity growth "beyond the mining boom," Mr Rudd said.
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February 2007 |
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Rudd leads, Greens strong
Sydney Morning Herald, 12/02/07
KEVIN RUDD is the most popular opposition leader in the past 35 years and the first Labor leader in six years to be preferred over John Howard as prime minister.
In the first Herald/ACNielsen poll this year - and the first since Mr Rudd became Labor leader on December 4 - his approval rating is 65 per cent, the best for an opposition leader in the history of the poll.
It outstrips by one point Malcolm Fraser's popularity in the months before he defeated the Whitlam Labor government in the 1975, post-dismissal election. And he is three points higher than Bob Hawke's rating in March 1983, when he became Labor leader and toppled Mr Fraser.
Significantly, Mr Rudd is leading Mr Howard as preferred prime minister by 48 per cent to 43 per cent, according to the poll of 1412 voters, taken from last Thursday to Saturday, at the end of the first parliamentary sitting week for the year.
Under Mr Rudd's leadership, however, Labor's primary vote has soared five points since December to 46 per cent, its highest since April 2001, while the Coalition's primary vote has fallen three points to 36 per cent, its lowest since May 2001.
He cautioned those predicting a Labor win based on the poll by pointing out that polls were only a snapshot of voting intention, not an election prediction. He said the latest ACNielsen poll was the ninth national poll, including Newspoll and Morgan, since Mr Rudd became leader.
The latest ACNielsen poll shows Labor is more trusted by voters on health and education, as well as the hot topics environment and water.
There is strong disapproval for the Government's handling of the case of David Hicks, but the public has more confidence in the Government than Labor on the economy and national security.
Mr Howard told his party room last week the Government needed to maintain its lead on these two issues to win the election. The poll shows opinion is split on international relations.
The Greens are the preferred minor party with 11 per cent.
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February 2007 |
By Ross Gittins, Sydney Morning Herald, 14/02/07
Unemployment - Costello takes credit
At just 4.5 per cent, the unemployment rate is its lowest in 31 years. And Peter Costello is in no doubt who and what should get the credit: the Howard Government and its Work Choices legislation. "Far from the Government's industrial relations changes leading to a loss of jobs, what we have actually seen in the aftermath of those changes is very dramatic jobs growth," he said when the figures were released last week.
But can you believe it? No - and yes. As usual, the truth is complicated and hard to put your finger on.
Costello has no evidence to support his claim that the 0.6 percentage-point fall in the unemployment rate since the Work Choices changes took effect less than a year ago has been caused by those changes.
As they din into you at university, "correlation is not causation". And it would be surprising if those changes were having much effect in such a short time.
A much stronger candidate for the continuing fall in recent times is the resources boom. You can see it in the differing rates of unemployment around the country: 3 per cent in Western Australia and 4 per cent in Queensland, compared with 5 per cent in NSW and Victoria and getting on for 6 per cent in South Australia and Tasmania.
But the broader explanation for our unusually low unemployment is the fact that we're in our 16th year of continuous growth in the economy since the recession of the early 1990s. Keep the economy growing for long enough, and unemployment comes down.
Can John Howard and his ministers claim credit for that protracted growth? Yes - provided they're prepared to share it with their Labor predecessors, who laid much of the groundwork.
And with the Reserve Bank bureaucrats who do the actual steering of the economy from day to day - and often increase interest rates against Howard's better judgement.
It's important to acknowledge that the Reserve is unlikely to have been able to keep the economy growing so strongly for so long without excessive, inflationary growth in wages had it not been for changes to our industrial relations system.
But this refers to Labor's dismantling of the centralised wage-fixing system and move to enterprise bargaining. And possibly the efforts to weaken unions in the Howard Government's earlier industrial relations changes.
But what about the unemployment figures themselves? Don't I remember Howard fiddling with them a few years back, changing the definition of how much work you have to do to be classed as employed?
It's surprising how many people do - and how often they say so on talkback radio or get their letters run in newspapers. But their memories are playing them false. It didn't happen. What people remember, I think, is a ruling that the employment agencies participating in the Job Network could be paid a success fee for getting someone into a job of as little as 15 hours a week.
Sorry, that's got nothing to do with who gets counted as unemployed. A lot of people confuse two separate things: who's on the dole and who counts as unemployed. They're quite different. You can be unemployed and not eligible for the dole (say, because your spouse has a job) or on the dole and not counted as unemployed (because you do a bit of casual work).
Some people get confused because, in the old days, we measured unemployment simply as the number of people getting the dole. Since Malcolm Fraser's day, however, it's been measured by the Bureau of Statistics conducting a monthly sample survey of about 29,000 households.
Many of us have heard that people contacted in the survey who've worked as little as one hour a week are classed as employed, even though they may just be picking up a few hours casual work while searching for a full-time job.
That's true. What's not true is that this rule was imposed a few years ago by Howard or any other politician. It's a statistical convention set by the International Labour Organisation in Geneva and hasn't changed in four decades (that's actually what's wrong with it).
So forget political interference. There hasn't been any. No, the real objection is that, for reasons of international consistency, the bureau's definition of unemployment is unrealistically narrow. It understates the true extent of unemployment and has done for many years.
This is why the bureau has also started measuring under-employment - the number of people who have work, but would like to work more hours if they could. There are at least as many underemployed as there are unemployed.
The narrow, official definition of unemployment also excludes "discouraged jobseekers" - people who'd like a job, but haven't been looking for one because they don't believe there are any. These would include a lot of older, blue-collar men.
Here's the point: if you take the officially unemployed and add the underemployed and an estimate of discouraged jobseekers, you get a broad measure of the unemployment rate that's roughly double the narrow, official rate.
So, should you believe unemployment's down to 4.5 per cent? No. A more realistic measure would be nearer 9 or 10 per cent.
Remember, however, that you have to compare like with like. So if you bump up today's unemployment rate you have to do the same to the official unemployment rate of almost 11 per cent attained after the recession of the early '90s.
In other words, don't kid yourself there's been no improvement in unemployment under the Howard Government. There has - and it's been huge. So, whatever the true figure, is unemployment the best it's been in 30 years? No, not likely. That's because the incidence of underemployment is much greater today than it was until the late '80s.
Howard and his ministers play so lightly with the truth that some people have stopped believing anything they say. Others refuse to give them credit for any good thing.
If that's you, get real. The unemployment position is the best it's been in many a long day and it's churlish to deny it.
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February 2007 |
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Greener Fuel - Mandatory ethanol
In an annoucement by Premier Morris Iemma, fuel in New South Wales must contain a minimum 2% ethanol content by September this year and 10% ethanol by 2011. This is aimed at providing a cleaner fuel as ethanol, derived from sugar cane is a clean burning fuel, therefore reducing greenhouse emissions. -ed
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February 2007 |
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Bookies install New favourite
According to leading online betting agency, Centrebet, Labor has shortened in odds from $2.70 to win the next Federal election to odds-on at $1.80, with the Liberals blowing out to $1.90. Previously considered a one-horse race, one may well wonder if the theory that the bookies always know, then maybe times-are-a-changin'. -ed
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February 2007 |
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Sudanese welcome and prospering in Blacktown
Blacktown Advocate, 13/02/07
AS the Federal Government considers slashing the intake of Sudanese refugees, Blacktown has proved it is possible to integrate thousands into the community.
The Blacktown area has one of Australia's largest populations of Sudanese migrants an estimated 3000 and Blacktown State Labor MP Paul Gibson says the Sudanese are beautiful people who are welcome in the community.
He is concerned however that the Federal Government is washing its hands of them.
``They've integrated well, the ones that have, but they need support. The State Government can only do so much. We put them in our schools, find departmental housing. The onus has got to be on the Federal Government,'' he said.
Local police, Blacktown Council, State Government and community representatives from the African community meet regularly to deal with potential problems.
Programs assist them with employment, education, welfare and health on a pro-active basis. Blacktown police have briefed over 2000 new arrivals on the difference in policing, a move the local area commander claims has been greatly beneficial.
``People of African background are not over-represented in local crime statistics,'' Chief Superintendent Mark Jenkins said.
Makur Luk, 21, who has lived in Blacktown for three years after migrating from Sudan, said it was difficult in the beginning but Centrelink helped him get on track.
He is studying advertising and speaks fluent English, although that wasn't the case when he first arrived.
Australia welcomes around 13,000 refugees each year, but the government may turn its focus away from Africa and towards the Asia Pacific region.
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